Sun, Feb 21, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 0, New York Rangers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 07 | 03 | 02 | 022 |
| NYR | 012 | 09 | 07 | 12 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 1:59NYRKevin KleinGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:11DETXavier Ouellet: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:48NYRKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:31NYRDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P2 7:34DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:37DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:49NYRTanner Glass: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:27DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 8:02DETLuke Glendening: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:02NYRKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
- P3 10:10NYRDan Girardi: Elbowing2 min
- P3 14:35DETMike Green: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Pulkkinen – Athanasiou3:01
xG 0.59–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Larkin5:44
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Helm – Sheahan – Glendening3:33
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Zetterberg2:29
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeKeyser2:04
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Green – Smith5:58
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchenko3:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Stalberg – Lindberg2:21
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Fast – Miller9:45
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:22
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller2:15
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal15:05
xG 0.52–0.31 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – McIlrath8:07
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – Girardi10:00
xG 0.38–0.56 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).