Sun, Feb 21, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 19 | 110 | 224 |
| ANA | 110 | 19 | 314 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:36ANAPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:54ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 8:52CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 0:16ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: David Perron, Mike Santorelli · Slap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 4:56ANARyan KeslerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 14:53ANAKevin BieksaPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 19:15CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Deryk Engelland, Brandon Bollig · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:49ANANick Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:55CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P1 15:26CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:04CGYBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:04ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:44ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:07ANANick Ritchie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:31ANARickard Rakell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:31ANANate Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:31CGYJoe Colborne: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:07CGYDavid Jones: Interference2 min
- P3 13:26CGYMark Giordano: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:10ANANate Thompson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Bouma7:20
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Backlund – Colborne6:36
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Bollig – Bennett3:34
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan3:56
xG 0.12–0.21 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Nakladal7:06
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Engelland – Wotherspoon2:25
xG 0.34–0.04 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Engelland – Hamilton11:53
xG 0.25–0.94 (21%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Santorelli – Perron8:08
xG 0.99–0.28 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:30
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Perry – Rakell – Ritchie12:31
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Thompson – Maroon – Garbutt7:28
xG 0.05–0.43 (11%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Vatanen15:01
xG 0.90–0.48 (65%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm11:01
xG 0.49–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler14:34
xG 0.96–0.84 (53%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).