Mon, Feb 22, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 315 | 28 | 635 |
| BOS | 110 | 18 | 212 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Ryan Murray · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 11:07BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 0:21CBJBoone JennerAssists: Seth Jones, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 2:57BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: Joe Morrow, Jimmy Hayes · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 10:17CBJWilliam KarlssonUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 17:21CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Ryan Murray, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 2:52BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: Kevan Miller, Joe Morrow · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 14:29CBJBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 17:03BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: David Krejci, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 17:45CBJDalton ProutENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.36 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:04CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P1 9:55BOSKevan Miller: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:41BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
- P2 13:48CBJMatt Calvert: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:10BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:49CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:49BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:44BOSBrad Marchand: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Calvert – Karlsson10:42
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Rychel4:07
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner13:38
xG 0.66–0.62 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg12:11
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout16:17
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Murray – Jones14:45
xG 0.89–0.52 (63%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard14:45
xG 0.29–0.91 (24%)attempts 10–22goals 2–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak14:08
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Ferraro – Kemppainen5:05
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly11:38
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner10:46
xG 0.15–0.42 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg3:05
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Morrow2:32
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller2:00
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).