Mon, Feb 22, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 6, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 317 | 111 | 25 | 633 |
| STL | 17 | 113 | 18 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:18SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.37 xG2–0
- P1 12:59SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.52 xG3–0
- P1 17:36STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–1
- P2 11:25STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 11:45SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Melker Karlsson, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 7:26SJSJoe ThorntonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 9:50STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jori Lehtera · Slap, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 18:35SJSJoe ThorntonENAssists: Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.41 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:37STLRyan Reaves: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 8:37STLRyan Reaves: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 12:01STLRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:38SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:56STLKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:51SJSJoel Ward: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:28SJSDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
- P3 2:25STLKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Donskoi – Karlsson9:09
xG 0.45–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto10:09
xG 0.31–0.47 (39%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Brown – Tierney6:29
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl10:36
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – DeMelo2:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – DeMelo3:40
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Martin – DeMelo2:28
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:06
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Paajarvi2:27
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri10:28
xG 0.40–0.18 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Backes – Berglund – Paajarvi6:07
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson10:36
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Parayko13:50
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk14:48
xG 0.30–0.48 (39%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).