Tue, Feb 23, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 28 | 05 | 06 | 219 |
| NJD | 111 | 217 | 28 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47NJDTyler KennedyAssists: Damon Severson, Sergey Kalinin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:17NYRKevin HayesAssists: Viktor Stalberg · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 9:02NYRDominic MooreAssists: Keith Yandle, Marek Hrivik · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 10:28NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Jacob Josefson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 18:06NJDLee StempniakGWGAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 17:16NJDSergey KalininAssists: Andy Greene, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 19:31NJDAdam LarssonENUnassisted · Snap, 0.41 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 6:31NYRDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:31NJDJoseph Blandisi: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:37NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:14NJDJoseph Blandisi: Embellishment2 min
- P2 13:14NYRDylan McIlrath: Interference2 min
- P2 19:59NYRJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:59NJDSergey Kalinin: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:59NYRJ.T. Miller: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P3 5:40NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Josefson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes6:56
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:38
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Brassard – Fast – Miller8:56
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Hrivik7:20
xG 0.03–0.33 (9%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Skjei11:20
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – McIlrath8:59
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Boyle – Skjei2:50
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Henrique – Kalinin8:41
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Josefson – Blandisi6:42
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta5:02
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Kennedy – Josefson – Kalinin3:11
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson18:39
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Schlemko – Moore12:21
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Merrill – Severson13:39
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).