Tue, Feb 23, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 5, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 18 | 38 | 527 |
| WPG | 07 | 26 | 112 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:15DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:28WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Drew Stafford, Ben Chiarot · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:14DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Mattias Janmark · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 16:14WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Joel Armia · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 12:29DALColton SceviourAssists: John Klingberg · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 14:08DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–2
- P3 17:54WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Toby Enstrom, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.25 xG4–3
- P3 19:45DALJamie BennENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:08WPGPaul Postma: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:18DALPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:56DALJordie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:22WPGAnthony Peluso: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:02WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:16DALPatrick Sharp: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:31DALJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:41WPGMathieu Perreault: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:47WPGBlake Wheeler: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Sceviour – Faksa7:15
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Janmark – Nichushkin7:31
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Sharp – Roussel – Eakin10:37
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin10:12
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg14:30
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Oduya – Demers11:22
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Nemeth10:17
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Thorburn – Peluso – Copp2:41
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers12:38
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Burmistrov12:19
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Ladd – Lowry – Armia10:41
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:09
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba14:40
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Postma – Chiarot8:25
xG 0.29–0.84 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).