Tue, Feb 23, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 113 | 23 | 425 |
| EDM | 012 | 19 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:50OTTNick PaulAssists: Chris Wideman, Curtis Lazar · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 5:53OTTZack SmithPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 18:14EDMJordan EberleAssists: Brandon Davidson, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:31OTTAlex ChiassonAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 16:39OTTMark StoneENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:33OTTMark Stone: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:40OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:07EDMBrandon Davidson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39EDMAndrej Sekera: Holding2 min
- P2 15:56OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:26OTTCurtis Lazar: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:26EDMConnor McDavid: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Paul – Lazar4:02
xG 1.00–0.68 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone7:13
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Chiasson – Pageau5:23
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Dzingel – Zibanejad6:52
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman7:42
xG 0.93–0.08 (92%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci9:20
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson8:21
xG 0.03–0.77 (4%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – McDavid6:52
xG 0.87–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Pakarinen4:58
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl6:33
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Yakupov5:20
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Nurse8:56
xG 0.73–0.07 (91%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Davidson – Oesterle9:45
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Sekera – Schultz9:33
xG 0.25–1.32 (16%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).