Wed, Feb 24, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 07 | 215 | 02 | 0 | 333 |
| COL | 111 | 014 | 211 | 05 | 2 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10SJSNick SpalingUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:02COLShawn MatthiasAssists: Carl Soderberg, Francois Beauchemin · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 1:50SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl, Paul Martin · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 5:35COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 11:45COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Andrew Bodnarchuk, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 18:29SJSJoel WardAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 2. SJS Joonas Donskoi stopped
- 3. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. COL Matt Duchene scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:35COLMatt Duchene: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:12SJSMelker Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:13SJSJoonas Donskoi: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Nieto – Tierney4:00
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto6:11
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Karlsson8:00
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Donskoi3:30
xG 0.07–0.04 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Dillon15:14
xG 0.72–0.45 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Martin – Burns18:24
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 19–23goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Braun17:05
xG 0.57–0.92 (38%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:28
xG 1.06–0.51 (68%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Iginla – Duchene – Grigorenko11:57
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Matthias12:11
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille8:25
xG 0.03–0.69 (4%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson19:41
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 19–21goals 1–1
- Bodnarchuk – Bigras9:39
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Holden – Barrie17:53
xG 0.50–0.85 (37%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).