Thu, Feb 25, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Rangers 2, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 06 | 110 | 223 |
| STL | 012 | 114 | 010 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:14NYRTanner GlassAssists: Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 14:23STLTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–1
- P3 4:18NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:17STLDavid Backes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:28NYRDan Girardi: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 5:21STLDmitrij Jaskin: Interference2 min
- P3 9:21NYROscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Hrivik8:09
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes7:05
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Stepan – Fast3:04
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Lindberg – Hayes2:18
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal6:36
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh17:11
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 12–20goals 2–0
- Klein – Yandle11:10
xG 0.10–0.26 (29%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz5:06
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Berglund – Fabbri2:37
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Berglund – Paajarvi5:12
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:36
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Edmundson10:22
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk18:12
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko12:42
xG 0.49–0.56 (46%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).