Thu, Feb 25, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 6, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 38 | 08 | 312 | 628 |
| DAL | 013 | 210 | 17 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:03WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:59WPGToby EnstromAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 19:57WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 1:59DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Patrick Sharp · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–1
- P2 3:51DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 2:23DALJason SpezzaAssists: Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 6:58WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 7:38WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Adam Lowry, Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 15:55WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Mark Scheifele, Joel Armia · Slap, 0.04 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:07WPGAdam Lowry: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:21WPGAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:56WPGJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:32WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P2 17:41WPGDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:26DALAles Hemsky: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:31
xG 0.89–0.38 (70%)attempts 18–13goals 3–1
- Stafford – Perreault – Burmistrov13:04
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Lowry – Armia13:40
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
- Peluso – Halischuk – Copp4:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:02
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Myers – Trouba4:07
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 3–0
- Pardy – Trouba10:25
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Roussel – Eakin3:59
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin4:22
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Faksa3:16
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sharp – Faksa – Janmark2:09
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Klingberg14:17
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Oduya – Demers14:31
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Demers – Nemeth2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).