Thu, Feb 25, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 2, Calgary Flames 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 010 | 19 | 13 | 234 |
| CGY | 112 | 011 | 07 | 02 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 9:49NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- OT 4:42NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: John Tavares, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:25NYICasey Cizikas: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:25CGYLance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:08NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:14NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:14CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:54CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:54NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:32CGYBrandon Bollig: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:19CGYJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:06NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas2:54
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin13:19
xG 0.41–0.25 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Bernier – Martin – Cizikas4:09
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Lee – Nelson5:51
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Strait8:57
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic18:15
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy15:13
xG 0.46–1.00 (32%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan13:33
xG 0.98–0.33 (75%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig5:09
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Colborne11:47
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Ferland – Bennett9:17
xG 0.41–0.76 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie19:53
xG 1.55–0.39 (80%)attempts 25–17goals 0–1
- Wotherspoon – Nakladal11:32
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Engelland – Hamilton15:37
xG 0.28–0.59 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).