Fri, Feb 26, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 218 | 15 | 436 |
| NJD | 010 | 06 | 05 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:36TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 13:02TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 18:54TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Anton Stralman, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 11:12TBLMatt CarleAssists: Ondrej Palat, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:07NJDJordin Tootoo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:09TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53NJDJohn Moore: Interference2 min
- P2 2:58NJDTyler Kennedy: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:58NJDLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:25NJDBobby Farnham: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:31NJDAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:39NJDAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:09NJDStephen Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Namestnikov – Marchessault10:00
xG 0.84–0.18 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov8:50
xG 0.44–0.18 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos10:49
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Filppula – Brown – Paquette11:09
xG 0.13–0.53 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman5:28
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Coburn – Hedman7:15
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr13:36
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Kennedy – Kalinin10:11
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Henrique – Blandisi7:48
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Tootoo – Gionta – Farnham6:00
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Boucher10:31
xG 0.07–0.32 (17%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson12:40
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Merrill – Severson14:52
xG 0.57–0.81 (41%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Moore10:41
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).