Fri, Feb 26, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Minnesota Wild 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 110 | 010 | 232 |
| WSH | 03 | 113 | 211 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:18MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 0:49WSHBrooks OrpikAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:05MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 4:35WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 14:56WSHDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:54WSHBrooks Orpik: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:50WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:44WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:06MINDarcy Kuemper: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Carter – Coyle13:00
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Stoll – Schroeder – Fontaine7:14
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Granlund2:09
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter12:06
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:20
xG 0.76–0.42 (64%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Scandella – Dumba13:02
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Prosser – Reilly8:13
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky12:11
xG 0.99–0.46 (68%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:28
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Laich – Richards – Galiev3:49
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson12:07
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov17:37
xG 1.05–0.37 (74%)attempts 20–17goals 2–0
- Orpik – Chorney2:25
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt2:28
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).