Sat, Feb 27, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 110 | 010 | 128 |
| PIT | 09 | 213 | 211 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:28PITKris LetangAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:51PITCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Ian Cole, Derrick Pouliot · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 11:12WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 5:19PITScott WilsonAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 10:02PITCarl HagelinAssists: Phil Kessel, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:09WPGBlake Wheeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:42PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:43PITBrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Perreault – Burmistrov13:16
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Peluso – Copp6:35
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Dano12:52
xG 0.09–0.58 (14%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers15:30
xG 0.39–0.97 (29%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pardy – Trouba9:03
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien18:28
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Myers – Chiarot12:17
xG 0.28–0.66 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin12:20
xG 1.15–0.83 (58%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Bonino – Rust – Wilson2:29
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist13:21
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Bonino – Wilson – Sheary3:52
xG 0.01–0.02 (25%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Dumoulin18:11
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Pouliot11:11
xG 0.75–0.72 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 3–0
- Letang – Maatta18:06
xG 0.63–0.74 (46%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).