Sat, Feb 27, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 113 | 111 | 16 | 01 | 0 | 331 |
| CBJ | 01 | 110 | 211 | 03 | 1 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:59FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 10:28FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 11:04CBJScott HartnellAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 3:07CBJSeth JonesPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 7:21CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Scott Hartnell, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.49 xG2–3
- P3 14:18FLALogan ShawPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.44 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 3. CBJ Alexander Wennberg stopped
- 4. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 5. CBJ Brandon Dubinsky scored
- 6. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:47CBJMichael Paliotta: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:12CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:12CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:12FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:30FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:43CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:00CBJScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:21FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P3 1:09FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:12CBJMichael Paliotta: Interference2 min
- P3 12:33CBJScott Hartnell: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 19:29FLADmitry Kulikov: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Shaw – Rau7:48
xG 1.04–0.12 (90%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Smith – Trocheck7:19
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jokinen – Barkov11:31
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Thornton – Wilson – McKegg4:50
xG 0.09–0.72 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Ekblad12:35
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Campbell – Petrovic9:28
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Gudbranson7:05
xG 0.77–0.72 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Saad – Wennberg7:01
xG 0.87–0.47 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:14
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Calvert – Karlsson7:40
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Rychel7:08
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Savard6:57
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Prout – Murray3:37
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray3:24
xG 0.17–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).