Sat, Feb 27, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 3, Dallas Stars 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 111 | 210 | 329 |
| DAL | 010 | 113 | 115 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:38NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 9:08DALColton SceviourAssists: Tyler Seguin, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 8:26NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Viktor Stalberg · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 15:59DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Colton Sceviour, Radek Faksa · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 17:07NYRKevin KleinGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:00NYRTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00DALPatrick Sharp: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:34DALJason Demers: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 18:03DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Zuccarello – Miller14:16
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Fast15:03
xG 0.79–0.59 (57%)attempts 16–24goals 1–1
- Moore – Glass – Hrivik6:54
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes10:13
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Klein – Yandle11:12
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal10:50
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal5:27
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin15:40
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Janmark – Nichushkin4:41
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Faksa5:19
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Janmark – Nichushkin3:56
xG 0.05–0.22 (17%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers16:06
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 33–7goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg19:09
xG 0.61–0.82 (42%)attempts 29–20goals 1–0
- Benn – Oleksiak15:05
xG 0.60–1.01 (37%)attempts 16–26goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).