Sat, Feb 27, 2016·Coors Field, DenverOutdoor game
Detroit Red Wings 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 04 | 413 | 528 |
| COL | 214 | 04 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07DETTomas TatarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 7:44COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:38COLTyson BarrieAssists: Blake Comeau, Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 1:27DETGustav NyquistAssists: Riley Sheahan, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 13:28DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Darren Helm, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 13:42COLAlex TanguayAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 19:00DETBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–3
- P3 19:40DETDarren HelmENAssists: Petr Mrazek, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:17COLAndrew Bodnarchuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:49COLCody McLeod: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:54DETPavel Datsyuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:54COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:01DETDanny DeKeyser: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:14COLChris Bigras: Holding2 min
- P2 13:20DETAndreas Athanasiou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:22COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:39DETMike Green: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Jurco – Glendening3:42
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Jurco3:14
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan6:38
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader7:45
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser14:07
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Green6:27
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Marchenko9:45
xG 0.65–0.48 (58%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Iginla – Duchene – Grigorenko10:27
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Matthias9:17
xG 0.19–0.39 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille5:38
xG 0.01–0.24 (6%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:30
xG 0.60–1.00 (38%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Johnson13:54
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Bodnarchuk – Bigras8:00
xG 0.03–0.22 (10%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie13:50
xG 0.58–1.10 (34%)attempts 16–14goals 2–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).