Sat, Feb 27, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 6, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 14 | 113 | 49 | 626 |
| CGY | 212 | 213 | 013 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24CGYJoe ColbornePPAssists: Sam Bennett, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:06CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 18:21OTTZack SmithPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 10:23CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 14:24OTTNick PaulAssists: Curtis Lazar, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:37CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 6:10OTTMika ZibanejadUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 7:59OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Alex Chiasson, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 8:48OTTMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–4
- P3 19:00OTTJean-Gabriel PageauENAssists: Mark Stone, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:47OTTMarc Methot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:48CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:30OTTKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:39CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:19CGYSean Monahan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:52OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Turris – Hoffman – Chiasson2:44
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Ryan – Dzingel – Zibanejad4:47
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Pageau11:08
xG 0.54–0.53 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad2:24
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman7:34
xG 0.46–0.19 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Methot – Ceci2:12
xG 0.31–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson4:28
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Gaudreau – Monahan10:53
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 3–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Colborne9:56
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ferland – Jooris – Bennett10:42
xG 0.75–0.64 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig7:58
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie17:46
xG 0.88–0.48 (64%)attempts 25–14goals 2–2
- Wotherspoon – Nakladal9:49
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie2:11
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).