Sun, Feb 28, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 117 | 04 | 19 | 230 |
| CHI | 16 | 114 | 13 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Justin Williams, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 6:44CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Artem Anisimov · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 18:15CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 12:47CHIDennis RasmussenGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Brandon Mashinter · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 16:39WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.00 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:13CHIAndrew Desjardins: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:25CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:42WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:42WSHBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:39WSHTaylor Chorney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:59WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:59CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:56CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:05WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P3 15:23CHIDennis Rasmussen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 16:34CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson11:03
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:54
xG 0.27–0.32 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Laich – Richards – Beagle6:21
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:38
xG 0.13–0.51 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Schmidt11:34
xG 0.86–0.66 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Orpik – Orlov14:19
xG 0.23–0.55 (30%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner12:01
xG 0.06–0.45 (12%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Desjardins – Teravainen8:29
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Mashinter – Panik – Rasmussen6:09
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:22
xG 0.53–0.84 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Ladd – Toews – Shaw9:13
xG 0.18–0.65 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – van Riemsdyk10:11
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson14:43
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson10:31
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).