Sun, Feb 28, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
St. Louis Blues 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 220 | 28 | 540 |
| CAR | 210 | 08 | 016 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17STLTy RattieAssists: Scottie Upshall, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 8:01CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ron Hainsey, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 9:25CARRon HainseyAssists: Jeff Skinner, Brad Malone · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 0:20STLDavid BackesAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 11:10STLKyle BrodziakSHGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 6:02STLRobby FabbriAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 6:39STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Patrik Berglund, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:19CARKris Versteeg: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:59CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:17STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:48STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Paajarvi – Jaskin12:53
xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:02
xG 1.36–0.74 (65%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Rattie7:18
xG 0.71–0.13 (84%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Berglund – Fabbri8:53
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 7–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:04
xG 2.20–0.83 (73%)attempts 22–26goals 3–1
- Edmundson – Parayko15:36
xG 0.93–0.61 (60%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson14:05
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Rask – Lindholm7:20
xG 0.72–0.05 (93%)attempts 14–2goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Terry – Malone2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Terry – Skinner – Di Giuseppe6:05
xG 0.35–0.39 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Gerbe – Malone2:01
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jordan – Hanifin11:36
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Liles – Pesce15:51
xG 0.87–1.12 (44%)attempts 27–12goals 0–2
- Hainsey – Slavin17:26
xG 0.53–2.01 (21%)attempts 17–33goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).