Sun, Feb 28, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 19 | 03 | 118 |
| MIN | 19 | 09 | 29 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 7:34FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 10:29MINErik HaulaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 19:21MINJason PominvilleENAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:25MINMarco Scandella: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:53FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:53MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:54FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:47MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:07FLASteven Kampfer: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:07MINMarco Scandella: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:07FLAGarrett Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24FLABrian Campbell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:13MINJared Spurgeon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:13FLAGarrett Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Shaw – Rau6:09
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- McKegg – Bjugstad – Rau2:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Howden – Barkov9:11
xG 0.23–0.32 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:28
xG 0.08–0.56 (13%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad7:08
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson3:14
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad5:10
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Haula – Niederreiter11:11
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Stoll – Carter – Fontaine5:07
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle13:34
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Vanek – Porter – Granlund6:41
xG 0.33–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon12:56
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Scandella – Prosser3:20
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Scandella3:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).