Sun, Feb 28, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 17 | 010 | 229 |
| ANA | 111 | 19 | 29 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:48ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:01LAKAlec MartinezPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:52LAKTanner PearsonUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 17:57ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P3 1:27ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 5:53ANADavid PerronPPAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:44ANANate Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:41ANACorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:41LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P1 6:41LAKAlec Martinez: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:39ANADavid Perron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:39LAKJonathan Quick: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:22LAKNicholas Shore: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:37ANASimon Despres: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:51LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:22ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:26LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:47LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:44ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Lewis – Pearson2:45
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Clifford2:29
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli2:50
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli2:14
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb3:52
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty15:17
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Schenn – McNabb8:51
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Rakell – Ritchie9:00
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perron – Garbutt7:24
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Santorelli – Perron3:09
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Santorelli – Maroon3:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm13:03
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Despres – Vatanen13:38
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Fowler17:11
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).