Mon, Feb 29, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 3, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 013 | 213 | 332 |
| PHI | 19 | 313 | 17 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:25PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Claude Giroux, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 4:47PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 15:27PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 18:31PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 10:17CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Sam Bennett, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 11:07CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Joe Colborne, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:23PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Michael Raffl, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:41PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference2 min
- P2 2:57CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:25PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:04PHISean Couturier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:04CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:55CGYDeryk Engelland: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:00CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:41PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Jooris10:52
xG 1.01–0.41 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Ferland – Hathaway – Bennett9:48
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Colborne10:38
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig7:53
xG 0.07–0.38 (15%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Nakladal10:16
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:15
xG 0.85–0.75 (53%)attempts 12–16goals 2–2
- Engelland – Hamilton14:05
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Schenn10:50
xG 0.69–0.35 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Gagner – Couturier – Raffl10:49
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Read – Cousins – Laughton7:58
xG 0.04–0.43 (9%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:18
xG 0.14–0.57 (20%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Medvedev2:06
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz14:17
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Gudas – Medvedev13:52
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).