Mon, Feb 29, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 110 | 112 | 14 | 333 |
| DAL | 016 | 113 | 112 | 00 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:50DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 17:32DALColton SceviourAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 6:38DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Mike Green, Luke Glendening · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 18:29DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- OT 2:33DETPavel DatsyukPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:32DALColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:42DETLuke Glendening: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:10DALJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:04DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 8:51DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:25DALJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:07DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:51DALMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:04
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader13:53
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Helm – Jurco – Glendening6:05
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Athanasiou – Larkin7:54
xG 0.29–1.35 (18%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson2:52
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Green8:33
xG 0.46–0.46 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Ericsson – DeKeyser2:08
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Eakin9:57
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin9:29
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin13:55
xG 0.67–0.32 (67%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Faksa5:52
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Nemeth9:37
xG 0.90–0.29 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers16:27
xG 0.93–0.51 (65%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:40
xG 0.95–0.67 (59%)attempts 24–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).