Tue, Mar 1, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 08 | 19 | 125 |
| BOS | 15 | 09 | 111 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05BOSLandon FerraroAssists: Torey Krug, Brett Connolly · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 5:35CGYJakub NakladalAssists: Jyrki Jokipakka, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 16:36BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Krejci · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:38BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:42CGYJoe Colborne: Interference2 min
- P1 15:41BOSKevan Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 1:10BOSMatt Beleskey: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:41CGYGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:53BOSMatt Beleskey: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:31CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:09CGYMichael Frolik: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:53CGYSam Bennett: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Jooris – Bennett7:35
xG 0.93–0.23 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Colborne8:17
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Hathaway13:30
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig7:21
xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Hamilton10:48
xG 1.06–0.50 (68%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Jokipakka – Nakladal5:48
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Brodie – Hamilton2:20
xG 0.13–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Stempniak – Marchand12:03
xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Connolly – Acciari5:31
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner7:07
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak4:19
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Miller12:42
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:20
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug10:48
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).