Tue, Mar 1, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 219 | 115 | 010 | 04 | 1 | 448 |
| OTT | 010 | 112 | 217 | 04 | 0 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 12:53STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: David Backes, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 10:38STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 12:32OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 17:19OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:59OTTJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 2. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 3. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. STL Robby Fabbri stopped
- 5. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 6. STL Troy Brouwer stopped
- 7. OTT Mark Stone stopped
- 8. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 9. OTT Mike Hoffman stopped
- 10. STL Magnus Paajarvi stopped
- 11. OTT Zack Smith stopped
- 12. STL David Backes stopped
- 13. OTT Jean-Gabriel Pageau stopped
- 14. STL Dmitrij Jaskin stopped
- 15. OTT Chris Wideman stopped
- 16. STL Paul Stastny stopped
- 17. OTT Alex Chiasson stopped
- 18. STL Jaden Schwartz stopped
- 19. OTT Matt Puempel stopped
- 20. STL Alex Pietrangelo stopped
- 21. OTT Cody Ceci stopped
- 22. STL Patrik Berglund scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:20OTTNick Paul: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:14OTTChris Wideman: Interference2 min
- P2 4:19STLDavid Backes: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:20OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:05STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:34OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:15OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:15STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:35OTTDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:35STLRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:13STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Stastny – Fabbri2:07
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Berglund – Fabbri7:28
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Backes – Paajarvi – Jaskin9:05
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves4:33
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:37
xG 1.39–0.54 (72%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Gunnarsson2:15
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko9:57
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Paul – Lazar2:47
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Pageau11:58
xG 0.77–0.67 (54%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Neil – Dzingel – Paul2:56
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Paul – Lazar2:05
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci8:44
xG 0.59–0.30 (67%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson8:14
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Methot – Ceci4:31
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).