Wed, Mar 2, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 213 | 211 | 533 |
| DET | 08 | 016 | 29 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 14:34CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 16:00CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 9:49DETBrad RichardsPPAssists: Mike Green, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 14:03CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 14:38CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 17:51DETRiley SheahanAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Ericsson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P2 3:52CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:42DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:59CHIAndrew Desjardins: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:59DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:59CHIAndrew Desjardins: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:22DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:09DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:21CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:37CHIPatrick Kane: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Mashinter – Panik – Rasmussen8:06
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desjardins – Teravainen8:30
xG 0.18–0.19 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Ladd – Toews – Shaw9:50
xG 0.48–0.92 (34%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin13:45
xG 0.28–0.87 (25%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – van Riemsdyk14:49
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook2:23
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson11:17
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader13:44
xG 1.13–0.42 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan10:52
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Helm – Jurco – Glendening6:11
xG 0.17–0.39 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Athanasiou – Larkin8:32
xG 0.14–0.66 (18%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Marchenko10:41
xG 0.97–0.54 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:36
xG 1.07–0.83 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Green8:48
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).