Thu, Mar 3, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Edmonton Oilers 4, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 29 | 18 | 431 |
| PHI | 06 | 016 | 013 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20EDMNail YakupovGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P2 14:22EDMTaylor HallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 16:11EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Adam Pardy, Brandon Davidson · Snap, 0.43 xG3–0
- P3 11:59EDMLauri KorpikoskiSHAssists: Mark Letestu · Snap, 0.10 xG4–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 13:49PHINick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P1 18:09EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:08EDMAdam Clendening: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:24EDMAnton Lander: Holding2 min
- P2 17:03EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:16EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16EDMAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:17EDMZack Kassian: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:46EDMZack Kassian: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:46EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:46EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:46PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:46PHIRadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Yakupov – McDavid8:54
xG 0.99–0.14 (88%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Maroon – Hall – Draisaitl5:37
xG 1.22–0.40 (76%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Kassian – Hall – Draisaitl4:59
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Cracknell – Lander6:10
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Davidson13:26
xG 1.83–0.10 (95%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Sekera – Fayne11:07
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Clendening – Nurse11:58
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Cousins – Laughton3:02
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Cousins – Raffl3:49
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare6:56
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Read – Couturier – Laughton7:05
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schultz11:00
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Gudas – Medvedev13:06
xG 0.27–1.16 (19%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere12:06
xG 0.20–1.24 (14%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).