Thu, Mar 3, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 110 | 29 | 12 | 427 |
| WPG | 115 | 05 | 29 | 00 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:13WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 6:01NYICalvin de HaanAssists: Travis Hamonic, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 8:32NYIShane PrinceAssists: Kyle Okposo, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 9:56WPGTyler MyersAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 17:57WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:31NYIAnders LeeAssists: Nick Leddy, Frans Nielsen · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–3
- OT 2:20NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:19NYIShane Prince: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:36WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:46NYIJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:17WPGDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:01NYIRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:48WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
- P2 14:54NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:54WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:49
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nelson – Strome12:01
xG 0.66–0.38 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Lee – Prince7:43
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey9:00
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan13:47
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Hickey – Pulock9:57
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:04
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Stafford – Perreault – Burmistrov10:53
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:19
xG 0.50–0.60 (45%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Dano10:00
xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Postma – Chiarot9:28
xG 0.21–0.18 (55%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba15:32
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:28
xG 0.31–0.73 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).