Thu, Mar 3, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Florida Panthers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 17 | 024 | 240 |
| COL | 213 | 15 | 08 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Calvin Pickard · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 9:42FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:50COLMikkel BoedkerAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 4:55COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 12:42FLABrian CampbellAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:24FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:38COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:06FLAJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P2 13:47COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:25FLASteven Kampfer: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:12FLAAlexander Petrovic: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Bjugstad – Shaw6:23
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck12:06
xG 0.63–0.35 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Howden – Shaw3:12
xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Rau – Barkov11:01
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson13:33
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Campbell – Ekblad2:46
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kindl – Petrovic4:54
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Iginla – Duchene – Grigorenko8:58
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Boedker – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:07
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille8:14
xG 0.08–0.30 (20%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Matthias9:44
xG 0.12–0.34 (25%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson12:29
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Barrie2:15
xG 0.05–0.01 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Bigras2:01
xG 0.01–0.13 (5%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).