Thu, Mar 3, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 116 | 27 | 330 |
| VAN | 215 | 08 | 07 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14VANJake VirtanenAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Chris Tanev · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:31VANSven BaertschiAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jake Virtanen · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 10:29SJSTomas HertlAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 0:43SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 5:29SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Logan Couture · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:59SJSMicheal Haley: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:05VANDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P2 6:23VANDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:02SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:02VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:04VANBen Hutton: Concealing puck2 min
- P2 19:03VANDaniel Sedin: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Donskoi4:08
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl11:21
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Couture – Spaling – Donskoi6:51
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Haley – Tierney4:17
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns13:25
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Martin – Polak2:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Dillon13:10
xG 0.42–0.51 (46%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Dorsett – Horvat3:01
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – McCann4:07
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Vey – Gaunce – Horvat6:24
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Granlund – Baertschi – Virtanen9:01
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hamhuis – Bartkowski11:51
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Tanev – Hutton14:21
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Biega – Sbisa11:07
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).