Thu, Mar 3, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Montréal Canadiens 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 15 | 08 | 12 | 215 |
| LAK | 210 | 08 | 113 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alec Martinez, Milan Lucic · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:33LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 18:32MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 5:16LAKDwight KingGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 14:06MTLLars EllerAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:09LAKNicholas Shore: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:05LAKVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:05MTLMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:10LAKKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:16MTLGreg Pateryn: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:16LAKMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:11MTLMax Pacioretty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:39MTLMark Barberio: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:51MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24MTLAlexei Emelin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Byron – Danault5:25
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Pacioretty6:23
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Brown – McCarron – de la Rose3:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher2:53
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Barberio2:16
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Barberio – Ellis7:29
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban13:32
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 11–16goals 2–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Lucic – Toffoli11:58
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Brown – Lewis3:36
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Lewis – Pearson2:23
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – King3:39
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – McNabb12:16
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Doughty15:28
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 2–2
- Muzzin – Martinez12:09
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).