Fri, Mar 4, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 013 | 210 | 113 | 336 |
| CBJ | 28 | 311 | 18 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 2:44CBJDavid SavardAssists: Brandon Saad, Matt Calvert · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:35EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Adam Pardy, Patrick Maroon · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 4:45CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 10:54CBJBoone JennerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Murray, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 19:00EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 19:43CBJScott HartnellAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 3:22EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Patrick Maroon, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 3:57CBJDavid SavardAssists: William Karlsson, David Clarkson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:16CBJGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:16EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:55EDMNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:20EDMMark Letestu: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:55CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:42EDMPatrick Maroon: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:57CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Interference2 min
- P3 19:24EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:24CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:45CBJDalton Prout: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Hall – Draisaitl9:19
xG 0.99–0.25 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Maroon – Hall – McDavid3:51
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Eberle – Yakupov – Draisaitl3:19
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Yakupov – McDavid8:49
xG 0.44–0.52 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Davidson16:51
xG 1.73–0.92 (65%)attempts 27–14goals 1–3
- Sekera – Fayne13:53
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Sekera – Nikitin2:52
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Saad – Karlsson7:53
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Calvert – Karlsson2:41
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Campbell – Clarkson – Boll4:18
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Wennberg11:11
xG 0.24–0.81 (23%)attempts 8–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Goloubef – Savard15:51
xG 0.97–1.39 (41%)attempts 15–25goals 2–0
- Murray – Jones15:50
xG 0.49–0.96 (34%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout15:59
xG 0.28–0.80 (26%)attempts 9–20goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).