Fri, Mar 4, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 2, Dallas Stars 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 17 | 16 | 220 |
| DAL | 19 | 28 | 18 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 5:14NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Adam Larsson, Sergey Kalinin · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:25DALJason SpezzaAssists: Mattias Janmark, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 11:24DALColton SceviourGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 15:41NJDDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Damon Severson, John Moore · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
- P3 19:40DALVernon FiddlerENAssists: Colton Sceviour, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:38NJDReid Boucher: Interference2 min
- P1 19:58DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:04DALBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:04NJDAdam Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:30NJDJohn Moore: Delaying game2 min
- P2 17:12DALAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:31NJDJohn Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:28DALJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Smith-Pelly – Kalinin7:08
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Josefson – Boucher2:13
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Josefson – Blandisi7:27
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta5:13
xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Merrill5:50
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson4:41
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Moore7:02
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Sceviour – Faksa9:16
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Eakin9:32
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Ritchie9:06
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin12:03
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Nemeth4:55
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Demers – Nemeth7:10
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Russell13:37
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).