Sat, Mar 5, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 25 | 16 | 322 |
| LAK | 011 | 113 | 110 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:16ANARyan KeslerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 11:14LAKMilan LucicPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Jonathan Quick · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 15:57ANADavid PerronPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 2:24ANAJakob SilfverbergPPGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–1
- P3 3:27LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (18)
- P1 6:58LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:58ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:58LAKKris Versteeg: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:58ANARickard Rakell: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:58LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:58ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:58ANACorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:58LAKLuke Schenn: Misconduct10 min
- P1 6:58ANAJamie McGinn: Misconduct10 min
- P1 6:58ANAKevin Bieksa: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 6:58LAKAndy Andreoff: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 10:26ANARyan Garbutt: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:23ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:47LAKTanner Pearson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:23ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:53LAKVincent Lecavalier: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:53ANANate Thompson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:51ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – McGinn – Rakell7:41
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perron – Ritchie9:14
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:00
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Thompson – Santorelli – Garbutt4:52
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Vatanen7:57
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm11:11
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler2:32
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – King3:41
xG 0.16–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Kopitar – Lucic4:35
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Toffoli – Pearson3:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – King4:07
xG 0.02–0.01 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – McNabb7:43
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Doughty – McNabb3:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty6:14
xG 0.17–0.18 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).