Sat, Mar 5, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 2, Boston Bruins 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 17 | 010 | 14 | 230 |
| BOS | 17 | 020 | 04 | 03 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 13:08WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- OT 2:36WSHMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:40WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:53BOSDavid Pastrnak: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:36WSHAlex Ovechkin: Boarding5 min
- P2 5:36BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:47WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:25WSHMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:20WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:04BOSJohn-Michael Liles: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:59BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:57WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky10:36
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Winnik – Beagle7:23
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson6:23
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:17
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov16:27
xG 0.81–0.28 (75%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Chorney – Schmidt9:10
xG 0.17–0.13 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner12:15
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Ferraro – Connolly – Acciari7:17
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Stempniak – Marchand9:10
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Eriksson – Hayes – Spooner7:24
xG 0.03–0.20 (14%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak10:34
xG 0.11–0.52 (18%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Seidenberg2:24
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug2:06
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Liles – McQuaid8:10
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).