Sat, Mar 5, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 07 | 06 | 019 |
| PHI | 217 | 210 | 29 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Radko Gudas, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:45PHIRadko GudasAssists: Brandon Manning, Chris VandeVelde · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 17:13PHISam GagnerAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 17:23PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 10:03PHINick CousinsAssists: Matt Read · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–5
- P3 10:29PHIRadko GudasAssists: Brandon Manning, Michael Raffl · Slap, 0.02 xG0–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:20CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:00CBJDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:19CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:29CBJDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:29PHIBrandon Manning: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:57PHINick Schultz: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:22CBJFedor Tyutin: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:22CBJFedor Tyutin: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:22PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:51PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:51PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:51CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:51CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Calvert – Karlsson4:16
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Wennberg3:14
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Clarkson – Dubinsky2:18
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Foligno – Wennberg6:18
xG 0.13–0.04 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Jones2:18
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Savard13:20
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Murray – Jones13:29
xG 0.27–0.72 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Cousins – Laughton9:41
xG 1.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 19–1goals 1–0
- Gagner – Couturier – Raffl11:46
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 3–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:59
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn9:07
xG 0.17–0.67 (20%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas11:42
xG 0.79–0.23 (77%)attempts 18–8goals 3–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere12:56
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz15:11
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).