Sat, Mar 5, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 04 | 115 | 19 | 228 |
| WPG | 08 | 111 | 311 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:10WPGMark ScheifeleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 5:23MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Max Pacioretty, Mark Barberio · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 5:57WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Ben Chiarot, JC Lipon · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 9:44MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Greg Pateryn, Max Pacioretty · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 13:01WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Toby Enstrom · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:31WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:51WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Interference2 min
- P2 6:37MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:46MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:15WPGTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:16MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Matteau – McCarron4:03
xG 1.09–0.15 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Eller5:40
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto9:22
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk4:20
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Pateryn13:00
xG 1.35–0.22 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Barberio2:53
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Barberio – Ellis5:57
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Burmistrov – Armia10:22
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Lowry – Dano7:34
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Lipon – Copp6:02
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele15:27
xG 0.57–1.36 (30%)attempts 15–18goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:09
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Byfuglien – Morrissey2:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Myers2:11
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).