Sat, Mar 5, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 17 | 27 | 426 |
| SJS | 19 | 09 | 116 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10SJSMicheal HaleyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 18:28VANLinden VeyPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Ben Hutton · Backhand, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 2:12VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Ben Hutton · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:53SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 10:28VANDan HamhuisPPGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 17:54VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Luca Sbisa, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:20SJSBrenden Dillon: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:45SJSMicheal Haley: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 1:05SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:20VANMatt Bartkowski: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:57VANJacob Markstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 17:54SJSJoel Ward: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:08VANLinden Vey: Holding2 min
- P3 8:44SJSJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:19SJSBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:19VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:19SJSJoe Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:08SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:08SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Vey – Gaunce – Horvat2:58
xG 0.03–0.00 (91%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Etem2:40
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – McCann3:53
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Vey – Etem8:41
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Hutton9:28
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Biega – Sbisa3:48
xG 0.02–0.06 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bartkowski6:57
xG 0.04–0.09 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Haley – Tierney4:03
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Marleau – Donskoi – Hertl3:41
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Spaling – Haley3:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl6:03
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun9:01
xG 0.54–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic3:04
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns8:13
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).