Sun, Mar 6, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 29 | 28 | 213 | 630 |
| NJD | 05 | 110 | 03 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:52PITMatt CullenGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 1:37PITNick BoninoAssists: Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl · Snap, 0.26 xG3–0
- P2 7:52NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Reid Boucher · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 15:23PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 6:49PITBryan RustAssists: Justin Schultz, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 16:05PITScott WilsonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.13 xG6–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:20NJDBobby Farnham: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:20PITPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:49PITTom Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:49NJDJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:49NJDJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:25PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:04PITOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:58NJDJoseph Blandisi: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:05NJDTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:00PITTrevor Daley: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:00NJDJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Kessel11:08
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Bonino – Rust – Kuhnhackl9:57
xG 0.49–0.35 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Cullen – Sestito – Sheary4:07
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Wilson7:43
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz13:13
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Letang – Maatta13:16
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Daley – Dumoulin16:20
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Gionta – Farnham2:57
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Boucher5:03
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Zajac – Palmieri4:50
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Kennedy – Kalinin4:22
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Merrill8:39
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Schlemko – Moore3:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson13:58
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).