Sun, Mar 6, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 013 | 013 | 134 |
| CHI | 211 | 03 | 212 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:19CHIDuncan KeithPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 8:34DETGustav NyquistAssists: Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 11:15CHIArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Brent Seabrook · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 12:23CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Michal Rozsival · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:26DETTomas Jurco: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:26CHIDuncan Keith: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:32DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:11DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 3:48CHIRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:53CHIArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:59CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:54DETMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Sheahan – Glendening2:45
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin9:13
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Helm – Jurco – Glendening3:56
xG 0.17–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Pulkkinen – Athanasiou4:48
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson10:11
xG 0.23–0.04 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Smith – DeKeyser2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green4:13
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Toews – Shaw12:48
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Weise – Panik – Rasmussen4:35
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin9:47
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Fleischmann – Desjardins – Teravainen8:38
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – van Riemsdyk13:01
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk2:48
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson8:54
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).