Mon, Mar 7, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 13 | 06 | 19 | 218 |
| PHI | 09 | 122 | 39 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Slater Koekkoek, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 16:51PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Michael Raffl, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:21PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 13:57PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 14:53TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:33PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:46TBLJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P1 5:07TBLVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:51PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:18TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:57TBLNikita Nesterov: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:01PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 6:11TBLNikita Nesterov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cousins won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov7:39
xG 0.95–0.39 (71%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Namestnikov2:19
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Boyle – Namestnikov – Marchessault6:13
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Palat2:02
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Koekkoek6:11
xG 0.82–0.04 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Carle – Garrison3:03
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman2:25
xG 0.11–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Schenn11:05
xG 1.06–0.32 (77%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare7:35
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Read – Cousins – Laughton7:40
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Couturier – Raffl10:51
xG 0.34–1.04 (24%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas17:12
xG 1.05–0.18 (86%)attempts 32–11goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere10:07
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz13:58
xG 0.62–0.98 (39%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).