Tue, Mar 8, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 011 | 012 | 135 |
| NYI | 18 | 09 | 110 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:13PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 8:55NYIAnders LeePPGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:55PITPatric Hornqvist: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:37NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:10NYINick Leddy: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:04PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:48NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:35PITMatt Cullen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:49PITIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:44NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Kessel12:25
xG 1.03–0.43 (71%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rust – Kuhnhackl7:36
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Sestito – Sheary2:41
xG 0.10–0.11 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Wilson10:49
xG 0.26–0.40 (40%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Dumoulin12:19
xG 1.01–0.42 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz11:13
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta15:52
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nelson – Strome11:29
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:25
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:30
xG 0.40–0.54 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Lee – Prince7:08
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy12:57
xG 0.69–0.53 (57%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Strait – Pulock8:34
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic17:31
xG 0.51–0.87 (37%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).