Tue, Mar 8, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 111 | 220 | 335 |
| CBJ | 016 | 28 | 38 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:35CBJDavid SavardPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Seth Jones · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 10:24DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 16:36CBJDavid ClarksonAssists: Matt Calvert, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 0:26CBJBoone JennerAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 9:14CBJCam AtkinsonPPGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 15:44DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Mike Green, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 16:30DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 19:42CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:47DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:13CBJFedor Tyutin: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:45CBJMatt Calvert: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:31DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:24DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:04CBJRene Bourque: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:25DETAndreas Athanasiou: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 4:25CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:46DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:12DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:44CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:20CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:32DETDarren Helm: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:32DETDarren Helm: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:32CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:32CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Athanasiou – Larkin2:11
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Sheahan2:58
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar3:39
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan2:16
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Marchenko – DeKeyser9:44
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson10:46
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Quincey – Green9:39
xG 0.65–1.11 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Calvert – Karlsson4:56
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Boll3:33
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:40
xG 0.67–0.66 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Foligno – Wennberg10:19
xG 0.01–0.26 (4%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones12:03
xG 1.16–0.50 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Goloubef – Savard10:01
xG 0.84–0.49 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout10:57
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).