Wed, Mar 9, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Washington Capitals 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 07 | 318 | 01 | 332 |
| LAK | 314 | 07 | 06 | 13 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52LAKVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Tanner Pearson, Alec Martinez · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 12:05LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 13:26LAKMilan LucicAssists: Jeff Carter, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 1:46WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 11:02WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 16:38WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:50LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:13WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:11WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:57WSHMike Richards: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:57LAKNicholas Shore: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:54LAKDwight King: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54WSHMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:40WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:40LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:01LAKDwight King: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:04WSHMike Weber: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:33
xG 1.13–0.45 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky11:06
xG 0.95–0.31 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson8:39
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Richards – Winnik – Beagle7:12
xG 0.28–0.04 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner18:54
xG 1.44–0.40 (78%)attempts 28–8goals 1–1
- Orpik – Orlov13:44
xG 0.86–0.57 (60%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Orpik – Niskanen2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – King9:02
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Clifford – Shore5:52
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Toffoli – Pearson8:42
xG 0.30–0.59 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Brown – King2:38
xG 0.01–0.67 (2%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez14:09
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Schenn – McNabb12:17
xG 0.73–0.88 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Schenn2:02
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).