Thu, Mar 10, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 110 | 010 | 13 | 328 |
| BOS | 08 | 116 | 18 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:13BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:34CARNathan GerbeAssists: Chris Terry, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 5:54BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:30CARPhillip Di GiuseppeGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:09BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:15BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:37CARElias Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 4:40CARChris Terry: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28BOSTorey Krug: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Terry – Nash9:23
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Lindholm11:47
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- McClement – Malone – Woods7:01
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe9:40
xG 0.16–0.57 (21%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Slavin18:49
xG 0.90–0.33 (73%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Jordan – Murphy15:51
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hanifin12:17
xG 0.35–0.41 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak11:21
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Stempniak – Marchand13:45
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Connolly – Acciari6:49
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner9:10
xG 0.20–0.72 (21%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug15:22
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Liles – Krug2:04
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Liles15:58
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).