Thu, Mar 10, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 2, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 04 | 18 | 225 |
| MIN | 012 | 110 | 08 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:55EDMLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Mark Letestu, Adam Clendening · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 11:04MINZach PariseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 12:31EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Zack Kassian, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:52MINJustin Fontaine: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:16MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:34EDMAndrej Sekera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:26EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:24EDMMark Letestu: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:12EDMAdam Cracknell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – Draisaitl10:28
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Kassian – Hall – McDavid12:07
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Cracknell – Pakarinen2:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Yakupov8:58
xG 0.13–0.29 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Oesterle11:30
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Sekera – Fayne14:23
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Fayne – Oesterle2:15
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Porter – Jones6:02
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Haula – Niederreiter – Fontaine9:03
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Zucker – Fontaine2:36
xG 0.02–0.04 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Vanek – Zucker – Granlund8:29
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba9:28
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Scandella – Brodin6:15
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin5:25
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).