Fri, Mar 11, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 215 | 06 | 331 |
| CBJ | 18 | 19 | 010 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05CBJGregory CampbellAssists: Jared Boll, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:23PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 0:45PITChris KunitzAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 2:58CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Ryan Murray, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 4:47PITCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:35CBJSergei Bobrovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:02CBJRene Bourque: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:02CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:02PITNick Bonino: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:03PITOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:40PITSidney Crosby: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 18:35CBJRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P3 14:46CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:46PITTom Kuhnhackl: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Wilson5:10
xG 0.41–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin4:32
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Bonino – Rust – Kuhnhackl6:34
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin2:03
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Dumoulin16:00
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz7:48
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Letang – Maatta17:27
xG 0.90–0.99 (48%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:07
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Bourque – Wennberg3:36
xG 0.08–0.00 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Karlsson7:25
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Boll2:53
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout7:29
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Prout – Murray3:45
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Jones5:03
xG 0.11–0.18 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).