Fri, Mar 11, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 18 | 112 | 229 |
| STL | 012 | 15 | 46 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:17ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 16:36STLPaul StastnyAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Robby Fabbri · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 1:55STLJori LehteraAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:59STLPatrik BerglundGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 15:27ANARickard RakellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 17:22STLVladimir TarasenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:38STLVladimir TarasenkoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:31STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:46ANADavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:46STLCarl Gunnarsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:53STLJori Lehtera: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:51STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:04ANADavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 11:16ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P3 7:52ANAHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Perron – Rakell2:27
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – McGinn2:57
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Santorelli – Ritchie5:25
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Perry – McGinn – Rakell7:57
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm10:57
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Fowler13:52
xG 0.82–0.51 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Despres – Fowler4:09
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:17
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Backes – Berglund – Jaskin9:02
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:31
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Stastny – Fabbri10:12
xG 0.25–0.81 (24%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:21
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Parayko14:18
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson10:22
xG 0.44–1.15 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).