Fri, Mar 11, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 111 | 16 | 223 |
| DAL | 18 | 312 | 111 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:08DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:09DALAntoine RousselAssists: Alex Goligoski, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 5:06DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–3
- P2 10:42DALJamie BennPPAssists: Patrick Eaves, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 13:01CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 15:29DALAles HemskyAssists: Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 19:01CHITomas FleischmannAssists: Dale Weise, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:57DALPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:50DALJohnny Oduya: Delaying game2 min
- P1 10:28CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:53CHITomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:24CHIDale Weise: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:34DALVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:38CHIAndrew Ladd: Interference2 min
- P2 9:46CHIPatrick Kane: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:24DALPatrick Eaves: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:20CHIErik Gustafsson: Delaying game2 min
- P3 16:28DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Ladd – Toews7:19
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Panik – Shaw7:16
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin7:38
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Weise – Teravainen7:26
xG 0.42–0.56 (42%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – van Riemsdyk6:27
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk5:27
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Seabrook3:44
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Faksa8:50
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Spezza – Seguin – Nichushkin8:07
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin9:42
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Ritchie – Janmark6:06
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Russell10:19
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Oleksiak6:04
xG 0.89–0.43 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Oduya – Nemeth4:07
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).